The “One Big, Beautiful Bill” is here: Who wins and who loses?
By Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo
- Trump’s tax bill passes House, heads to Senate: The $3.8 trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill” includes sweeping tax cuts, social spending rollbacks, and over $3 trillion in added deficits. A Senate vote is expected before the July 4 recess.
- Potential winners: defense, cybersecurity, and select consumers: Major boosts could come to defense and homeland security funding benefit contractors like Lockheed Martin and CrowdStrike, while tax breaks for overtime and tips support service-sector consumption.
- Potential losers: renewables, EVs, and healthcare: Clean energy tax credits are scrapped, EV incentives eliminated, and Medicaid cut by $800 billion — potentially hitting stocks like Sunrun, Tesla, and Humana.
The U.S. House has passed a sweeping $3.8 trillion tax-and-spending package, narrowly approved in a 215–214 vote. Dubbed by former President Donald Trump as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” it combines broad-based tax relief with deep cuts to social spending and marks a major turning point in U.S. fiscal policy.
The bill now moves to the Senate, where some Republicans are expected to push for changes, particularly around Medicaid and business tax cuts. If enacted in its current form, the legislation would dramatically reshape federal priorities — increasing deficits by more than $3 trillion over the next decade and steering resources away from climate, education, and healthcare toward defense, fossil fuels, and law enforcement.
Key measures in brief
- Extends Trump-era tax cuts that were set to expire at the end of 2025. This would mean a continuation of lower personal income tax rates for individuals and households through the next decade.
- Raises the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for individuals and couples, benefiting taxpayers in high-tax states like New York and California. The deduction phases out for those earning over $500,000.
- Ends most clean energy tax credits, including for residential solar and battery storage, with accelerated deadlines for project eligibility.
- Cuts Medicaid and food stamp funding by hundreds of billions, and accelerates work requirements for Medicaid eligibility starting December 2026.
- Eliminates the $7,500 federal EV tax credit after 2025 and imposes a $250 annual EV road fee.
- Taxes annual inflation adjustments on TIPS, making them less attractive for taxable portfolios.
- Keeps capital gains tax rates unchanged, but tightens rules around other tax shelters and investment deductions.
- Increases the military budget by $150 billion and adds $175 billion for immigration enforcement, including border wall funding and expanded deportation operations.
- Temporarily exempts overtime pay, car loan interest and tips from income tax, aimed at boosting take-home pay for service-sector workers.
- Imposes a 21% tax on private university endowment income, up from 1.4%, targeting schools like Harvard and Yale.
- Replaces student loan forgiveness with stricter repayment terms.
- Applies a new tax on money transfers (remittances) sent abroad by immigrants.
The measure has been praised by conservatives as a growth-enhancing tax overhaul and condemned by critics as a "Robin Hood in reverse" that shifts the burden to low-income households while benefiting the wealthy.
Sector impact: Who wins and who loses?
With Moody’s already downgrading the U.S. credit outlook due to worsening fiscal metrics, the bill is set to amplify the divide between sectors poised to benefit from higher defense and enforcement spending and those exposed to healthcare, renewables, and income-sensitive demand.
Potential winners
- Defense and Aerospace. The bill increases Department of Defense funding by $150 billion, pointing to a significant expansion in procurement, cybersecurity, and equipment modernization. It also includes $25 billion earmarked for a “Golden Dome” missile defense system.
The boost is expected to drive new contract flows and strengthen order books across U.S. defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, Palantir, Northrop Grumman. - Cybersecurity and Homeland Security. A $175 billion increase in funding for immigration and homeland security includes digital surveillance, cyber infrastructure, and border enforcement upgrades.
Cybersecurity firms and government IT contractors like Crowdstrike, Fortinet and Palo Alto are positioned to gain from heightened public sector demand. - Consumer Discretionary. Exempting overtime and tip income from tax is aimed at giving low- and middle-income earners a short-term income boost.
This could support consumer spending at the margins, particularly in service-heavy industries.
Potential losers
- Renewable Energy. Residential solar and battery storage tax credits are eliminated by 2025. Commercial projects must begin within 60 days of enactment to qualify for existing incentives.
The policy shift undermines project viability and erodes momentum in the clean energy transition. Stocks like Sunrun, Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies and First Solar saw a significant plunge on the news. - Electric Vehicles. The $7,500 EV tax credit is scrapped after 2025. A new $250 annual EV road repair fee is introduced. The EPA will no longer require CO₂ credits, and the Senate has voted to block CARB-aligned states from banning gasoline-powered cars.
The combination of lost subsidies and regulatory reversals threatens U.S. EV adoption and erodes Tesla’s domestic advantage. - Healthcare. Medicaid cuts exceed $800 billion, with new work requirements accelerated to 2026. The bill also trims other safety-net health programs.
Insurers and providers with large Medicaid exposure companies such as Humana, Centene, Molina Helathcare and Elevance Health face margin pressures and increased volatility. - Agriculture. A $238 billion cut to agricultural support programs targets rural subsidies, commodity support, and farm development.
Agribusinesses may see reduced cash flow support and increased policy risk, likely impacting agri stocks like Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge. - Education and Universities. Large private universities must now pay a 21% tax on endowment investment income, up from 1.4%. Federal education funding is cut by $349 billion.
Higher education institutions could face budgetary strain and declining access to federal aid.
